HÀ NỘI — Vietnam’s seafood industry is confronting a major external shock as escalating military tensions in the Middle East disrupt critical shipping lanes, drive up freight and insurance costs and threaten the stability of temperature-controlled supply chains.

The disruption has been triggered by intensifying military conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel, after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned that vessels attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz could be attacked, effectively disrupting shipping through the strategic waterway.

The Strait of Hormuz, linking the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean, is one of the world’s most vital corridors for energy and goods transportation. Growing security risks have forced shipping companies and insurers to quickly adjust operations, creating ripple effects across global trade — including Vietnam’s seafood exports.

“In just a few days, military tensions have rapidly transformed into a shipping and maritime insurance shock in the Middle East, a region that plays a critical role in global energy and goods circulation,” said Lê Hằng, Deputy Secretary General of the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP).

According to Hằng, the seafood industry has already been hit by surging freight rates, rising risks to cold-chain logistics, localized supply shortages and increasing price volatility across product categories.

Shipping routes disrupted and costs surge

Amid heightened security alerts, numerous international shipping lines have begun avoiding the Strait of Hormuz. Some vessels have sought temporary safe anchorage, while others have suspended routes or diverted voyages around the Cape of Good Hope rather than passing through the traditional corridor of the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Suez Canal.

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Major container shipping companies — including Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM and MSC Mediterranean Shipping Company — have announced temporary suspensions of cargo acceptance at certain Gulf ports, introduced war-risk surcharges, and tightened restrictions on refrigerated container bookings.

These operational changes have significantly increased transit times, adding between 7 and 14 days to shipping routes. The longer journeys reduce effective fleet capacity and place heavy pressure on container availability, particularly refrigerated units, which are essential for transporting seafood.

Freight rates on the Asia–Dubai route have nearly doubled within days, while emergency surcharges for shipments to and from Gulf countries now range between $1,500 and $4,000 per container, with even higher costs for refrigerated cargo.

For seafood exporters, these additional costs are directly eroding profit margins while raising overall production expenses.

Insurance market reacts to rising war risk

The marine insurance sector has also responded rapidly to the deteriorating security situation.

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Major insurers — including Gard, Skuld, NorthStandard, London P&I Club, and American Club — announced the cancellation of war-risk coverage for vessels operating in Iranian waters and nearby areas starting March 5.

War-risk insurance premiums for ships operating near the conflict zone have reportedly increased by about 50 percent.

Even without a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the combined impact of security concerns, restricted insurance coverage and sharply rising premiums has pushed several shipping routes close to operational paralysis.

“For the seafood industry, even shipments that do not directly pass through conflict zones may still face higher costs if vessels in the transport chain call at areas considered war risk regions,” Hằng said.

Risk of supply chain disruption grows

The Middle East represents a significant market for Vietnamese seafood, with exports reaching $401 million last year.

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Among key products, pangasius exports totaled $175.9 million, rising 18.6 percent year-on-year, while shrimp exports reached $54.5 million, up 19.9 percent. Other fish categories grew 28.6 percent.

However, seafood shipments depend heavily on precise temperature control and predictable transit schedules, making them especially vulnerable to logistics disruptions.

If air freight for fresh seafood becomes unreliable, importers may shift toward frozen products, Hằng explained. Yet frozen shipments also face limitations because of the reduced availability of refrigerated containers.

A critical regional hub is Dubai, home to Jebel Ali Port, operated by DP World, one of the world’s largest transshipment centers.

As vessels are rerouted and travel times increase, the port could face growing congestion, along with shortages of electric power supply points for refrigerated containers.

Such shortages raise storage and demurrage costs and increase the risk that seafood products could deteriorate if they remain in storage beyond safe temperature thresholds.

Outlook depends on geopolitical stability

According to Hằng, the impact on Vietnam’s seafood sector will depend heavily on how long the regional instability persists.

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If tensions ease and security conditions improve, shipping companies may gradually resume transits through the Strait of Hormuz, reopen bookings for refrigerated containers and reduce war-risk surcharges, allowing frozen seafood supply chains to recover relatively quickly.

However, if instability continues, rerouting vessels around Africa could become standard practice. Sustained insurance premiums and surcharges would likely keep freight costs elevated and limit refrigerated container capacity to Gulf markets for months, increasing the risk of further price volatility.

“In an increasingly uncertain global environment, the ability to manage transport and insurance risks will be decisive in sustaining seafood trade flows, particularly when strategic chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz are under heightened threat,” she said.

Export growth continues despite challenges

Despite the logistics shock, Vietnam’s seafood exports remain strong.

Export turnover was estimated at $750 million in February, bringing the total for the first two months of the year to $1.76 billion, marking a 23.3 percent year-on-year increase.

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The industry’s three largest markets remain China, Japan and the United States, accounting for 24.2 percent, 14.8 percent, and 12.7 percent of exports respectively.

To mitigate risks, VASEP is advising seafood companies to diversify shipping routes, expand regional cold-storage capacity, prioritize long-term freight contracts, and closely monitor developments in marine insurance policies and shipping line operations.