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Vietnam's Pangasius Sector Poised for Robust 7% Growth in 2025 Amid Global Market Diversification

With projected harvests reaching 1.65 million tonnes, the industry is aggressively expanding beyond traditional markets and focusing on value-added products, despite facing ongoing tariff challenges and price fluctuations.

Vietnam's pangasius sector is gearing up for a period of strong growth in 2025, with projected harvests reaching 1.65 million tonnes, representing a 7 percent increase over 2024. The industry is aggressively diversifying its market reach beyond established destinations, actively seeking new opportunities in emerging global markets to sustain its expansion.

According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), the export value of pangasius in 2024 is estimated to have reached USD 2 billion, underscoring the country’s dominant position in the global pangasius supply, buoyed by consistent firm demand.

The Directorate of Fisheries has emphasized a continued focus on improving the quality of pangasius fingerlings. Simultaneously, enhanced research efforts are underway to gradually replace fishmeal and fish oil in feed production with alternative ingredients such as plant-based materials, insects, microalgae, seaweed, and other promising sources, aiming for more sustainable production.

Regional Production Highlights

While Vietnam anticipates growth, other key pangasius-producing nations show varied trends:

In Indonesia, the Indonesian Catfish Producers Association (APCI) estimates a decline in 2024 production to 280,000–300,000 tonnes, down from 350,000–400,000 tonnes in 2023. This reduction is attributed to prolonged El Niño conditions that disrupted pond systems and reduced yields.
Bangladesh has seen significant growth in pangasius production over the past two decades, with total production crossing 400,000 tonnes in the 2022–2023 fiscal year. Driven by the fish's affordability, most of this output is consumed domestically, available in wet markets and gaining traction in supermarkets and the food service sector. The average price of whole fresh pangasius in Dhaka supermarkets is currently USD 2.00 per kilogram. Its steady demand, coupled with government support, positions pangasius as a vital contributor to Bangladesh’s food security and rural economy.

Global Trade Dynamics and Market Diversification

The Vietnamese pangasius industry was a prominent presence at the Seafood Expo Global in Barcelona in May, actively promoting its products. With looming tariffs from the United States, the industry is strategically working to reduce its dependence on traditional export markets. This involves broadening its market base and enhancing domestic consumption. To ensure sustained growth, the sector is specifically targeting emerging markets like the Near East, where demand for pangasius is rising and compliance with standards such as halal certification is essential. Companies are also increasing investments in value-added products to further tap into the local market and reduce reliance on exports.

In 2024, a total of 147 countries imported approximately 880,000 tonnes of frozen pangasius from Vietnam, a robust 20 percent increase from the previous year. The top ten importers accounted for 75 percent of this supply, with notable increases across most destinations, including emerging markets. Asia, including China, absorbed approximately 47 percent of the total pangasius trade.

China maintained its top position in 2024, recording a 17.60 percent rise in import volume compared to 2023. Behind China, the largest importers were the United States, Brazil, Thailand, Mexico, and Singapore. While frozen fillets comprised 81 percent of total imports, whole frozen fish saw a higher percentage increase. Approximately 710,000 tonnes of frozen fillets were imported in 2024, representing a 16.6 percent increase, while whole frozen pangasius reached 165,000 tonnes, up 19.0 percent from 2023. China led both categories. Significant year-on-year increases in the whole frozen pangasius category were also observed in Singapore (+63.60 percent at 4,060 tonnes), Saudi Arabia (+17.80 percent at 4,260 tonnes), and Iraq (+1076 percent at 5,640 tonnes).

Among ASEAN economies, Singapore emerged as the second biggest importer of Vietnamese pangasius after Thailand, with its import uptick compensating for declines in other ASEAN markets. The United States retained its position as the second largest market for Vietnamese pangasius, experiencing 33.7 percent growth to 119,760 tonnes in 2024, partly supported by rising tilapia prices. Imports into the European Union also saw an 8 percent increase in 2024, with Germany, Spain, Belgium, Italy, and Poland together accounting for 50 percent of the bloc's total imports. Vietnamese exporters continue to dominate the EU market, primarily with frozen fillets. In Latin America, Brazil (leading frozen fillet imports with 33,570 tonnes, up 32.50 percent) and Colombia (leading whole frozen pangasius imports with 14,910 tonnes, up 15.90 percent) stand out as major markets.

Price Trends and Outlook

In 2024, Vietnam’s pangasius industry navigated price fluctuations influenced by supply constraints and shifting global demand. Ex-farm prices for pangasius over 1.2 kg initially hovered below VND 30,000 per kilogram (USD 1.15), before surging to VND 32,000–33,000 per kilogram (USD 1.23–USD 1.27) for fish over 1 kg towards the end of the year.

Blue Line (Left Axis): Price in VND per kg
Red Dashed Line (Right Axis): Price in USD per kg

Early 2025 saw Vietnam’s pangasius prices reach a three-year high, with larger fish (over 1.2 kg) selling at approximately VND 33,500 per kilogram (USD 1.30), a significant increase over the same period in 2024. This surge is primarily attributed to supply shortages, as many farmers had reduced stocking densities due to unpredictable weather and financial constraints from prior low prices. The limited availability of larger-sized fish, primarily destined for export to China, has driven up prices, resulting in substantial profits for farmers.

The outlook for 2025 remains steady, bolstered by strategic trade dynamics and Vietnam's aggressive market diversification strategy in response to emerging trade barriers, particularly the looming U.S. tariffs. Continued strong demand from key markets like China, the United States, the European Union, and Latin America, combined with rapid growth in dynamic smaller markets across Asia and the Near East, is expected to buoy this positive trend

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