Photo: Norwegian Seafood Council

Norwegian Cod Exports Navigate Quota Cuts with Record-High Prices and Strategic Market Shifts

NORWAY
Tuesday, July 08, 2025, 06:10 (GMT + 9)

Despite significant volume drops across categories, Norway's cod industry secures unprecedented values for fresh, frozen, and cured products, buoyed by strong demand and the growing role of farmed cod.

OSLO – Norway's cod exports demonstrated remarkable resilience in the first half of 2025, achieving record-high prices across various product categories despite a notable reduction in overall export volumes. While lower quotas for wild cod impacted supply, strategic market dynamics and a surging farmed cod segment helped maintain robust total export values, totaling billions of Norwegian kroner.

Value in billions of NOK | Source: Norwegian Seafood Council

Seafood analyst Eivind Hestvik Brækkan of the Norwegian Seafood Council highlighted the overarching trend: "The reduction in quotas for wild cod has characterized exports of the fresh cod category this year, and it is not surprising that export volumes fell. The first half of the year has also been characterized by higher export prices for fresh cod, as well as a continued increase in the export volume of fresh farmed cod."

Fresh Cod: Farmed Growth Offsets Wild Decline

In the first half of the year, Norway exported 22,669 tonnes of fresh cod, valued at NOK 1.8 billion (approximately $178.2 million USD). While the total value saw a slight 1% decrease (NOK 13 million / ~$1.29 million USD), the volume plummeted by 20%.

This shift was largely driven by a significant decline in wild cod exports, which fell by 34% in volume to 14,554 tonnes and 13% in value to NOK 1.2 billion (approximately $118.8 million USD). Conversely, fresh farmed cod exports surged, with volume up 26% to 8,114 tonnes and value rising 47% to NOK 544 million (approximately $53.86 million USD). Farmed cod now accounts for a record 31% of fresh cod export value.

Source: Norwegian Seafood Council

Denmark, the Netherlands, and Latvia were the largest markets for fresh cod, often serving as transit and processing hubs before re-exporting to major consumption markets like France, Spain, Germany, and Italy. Latvia, in particular, saw exceptional growth, with export value soaring by 132% (NOK 113 million / ~$11.19 million USD) to 2,918 tonnes. The price of fresh whole cod hit a record high of NOK 75 per kg (approximately $7.43 USD per kg).

June followed the trend, with fresh cod exports falling 7% in value (NOK 10 million / ~$0.99 million USD) to NOK 130 million (approximately $12.87 million USD) and 19% in volume, totaling 1,800 tonnes.

Photo: Courtesy Lerøy

Frozen Cod: UK Remains a Resilient Market

Frozen cod exports reached 21,569 tonnes in the first half of the year, valued at NOK 1.8 billion (approximately $178.2 million USD). This segment experienced a 10% decline in value (NOK 190 million / ~$18.81 million USD) and a substantial 35% drop in volume.

The UK, China, and Vietnam were the primary markets. The UK stood out with a 26% increase in export value (NOK 145 million / ~$14.36 million USD), despite a 10% drop in volume to 7,496 tonnes. Victoria Braathen, seafood envoy to the UK, commented, "The whitefish sector has been characterized by reduced quotas and increased prices throughout the spring... Despite this, it is positive that Norwegian seafood maintains a strong market position in the UK, with growth in exports of both cod and haddock in June."

Record prices were observed for frozen cod fillets at NOK 132 per kg (approximately $13.07 USD per kg) and for frozen whole cod at NOK 80 per kg (approximately $7.92 USD per kg). Brækkan noted the increasing competition for cod access due to lower quotas, while the UK market's continued demand underscores the enduring popularity of dishes like fish and chips, even amidst higher costs and consumer restraint.

China and Vietnam, serving mainly as processing markets, remained significant destinations, re-exporting most of the frozen cod as fillets to the USA and Europe. US tariffs against China continue to influence the flow of these goods.

In June, frozen cod exports stood at 2,800 tonnes, with value remaining unchanged at NOK 207 million (approximately $20.49 million USD), while volume fell by 12%.

Cured Cod Products: Traditional Markets Fuel Value Growth

Norway's exports of clipfish (salted and dried cod) and salted fish both saw significant value increases despite volume declines, driven by strong demand in traditional markets and record-high prices.

Clipfish exports totaled 35,459 tonnes for a value of NOK 2.8 billion (approximately $277.2 million USD), representing a 15% value increase (NOK 359 million / ~$35.54 million USD) despite a 5% volume drop. Portugal, Brazil, and the Dominican Republic were the largest markets. Clipfish from cod saw a 5% value increase to NOK 1.3 billion (approximately $128.7 million USD) on 11% lower volume, while saithe clipfish value rose 16% to NOK 1.1 billion (approximately $108.9 million USD) on 14% lower volume.

Record prices were achieved for whole cod clipfish at NOK 147 per kg (approximately $14.55 USD per kg) and for whole saithe clipfish at NOK 55 per kg (approximately $5.45 USD per kg). Portugal remains the dominant market for cod clipfish, despite lower consumption due to reduced quotas, highlighting the strong cultural significance of "bacalao."

June clipfish exports were robust, with 6,200 tonnes valued at NOK 583 million (approximately $57.72 million USD), marking a significant 47% value increase (NOK 188 million / ~$18.61 million USD) and a 5% volume growth.

Salted fish exports also hit a record high value for a six-month period, reaching NOK 1.6 billion (approximately $158.4 million USD) from 14,450 tonnes. This was a 10% value increase (NOK 143 million / ~$14.16 million USD) despite a 14% volume decline. Portugal, Greece, and Italy were the main markets, with Portugal showing an 11% value growth (NOK 137 million / ~$13.56 million USD) to 10,784 tonnes. The price of salted whole cod reached a record NOK 126 per kg (approximately $12.47 USD per kg), with cod still accounting for 80% of salted fish exports.

Brækkan noted a long-term shift in Portugal towards increased consumption of frozen diluted clipfish, a convenient alternative largely produced from Norwegian salted fish.

June salted fish exports amounted to 2,300 tonnes, valued at NOK 260 million (approximately $25.74 million USD), up 14% in value (NOK 32 million / ~$3.17 million USD), with a 10% volume decrease.

Dried Fish (Stockfish): High Costs Cloud Future Outlook

Norway exported 1,522 tonnes of stockfish valued at NOK 442 million (approximately $43.76 million USD) in the first half of the year. Value saw a modest 1% increase (NOK 6 million / ~$0.59 million USD), but volume fell by 12%. Italy, the USA, and Nigeria were the largest markets, with the USA seeing a 29% value increase (NOK 7 million / ~$0.69 million USD) from 95 tonnes.

The price of whole stockfish from cod reached a record high of NOK 337 per kg (approximately $33.36 USD per kg). However, Brækkan warned, "The low cod quotas result in strong competition for raw materials and significantly higher production costs for the stockfish industry." Due to long production times, current exports reflect last year's production. It remains to be seen if price increases for this year's stockfish will compensate for rising raw material costs.

Italy, Norway's largest stockfish market, shows a positive trend for processed stockfish products, though challenges remain for the industry due to higher prices.

June stockfish exports totaled 133 tonnes, valued at NOK 31 million (approximately $3.07 million USD), up 16% in value (NOK 4 million / ~$0.40 million USD), with a 3% volume decrease.

Overall, Norway's cod sector demonstrates adaptability in a challenging environment of reduced quotas, prioritizing value and leveraging high demand for its diverse range of products.

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