Photo: VASEP/VAFCO

US Tariff Shock Creates Volatility in the Shrimp Market, Impacting Vietnamese Exporters

VIET NAM
Tuesday, August 12, 2025, 00:10 (GMT + 9)

Record-high import volumes driven by preemptive buying threaten a slowdown in the second half of the year, while new tariffs reshape the competitive landscape for major suppliers.

HANOI – The US shrimp import market experienced a surge in the first half of 2025, but this growth is a symptom of market instability rather than sustainable demand. According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), US importers engaged in "load-ordering" to front-run new reciprocal tariffs announced by the Trump administration. This preemptive buying behavior, particularly in the second quarter, has created a complex and volatile environment for major exporting countries, including Vietnam.

The new tariff policy, which ranges from 10% to 25% on shrimp imports from most countries, with a potential increase to 50% for India, has caused a ripple effect across the global supply chain. In June alone, US shrimp imports skyrocketed to 72,763 tons, valued at $613.2 million, marking a year-on-year increase of 36% in volume and 47% in value. However, market analysts warn that this is a technical increase, likely to be followed by a stagnation or decrease in the second half of the year as warehouses are filled and the full impact of the tariffs takes hold.

The new tax structure has profoundly altered the competitive dynamics among top shrimp suppliers. India, the largest exporter to the US, is the most affected. Facing a potential total tariff of up to 58.26% (including anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties), Indian shrimp is becoming less competitive. Meanwhile, Ecuador has gained a clear tariff advantage with a total duty of just 18.78%, fueling a rapid increase in its exports of peeled and value-added products. Indonesia, despite a strong increase in June, is subject to a total tax of 22.9%, prompting its industry to consider shifting focus to the Chinese market.

Despite this turbulent backdrop, Vietnam’s shrimp exports to the US showed resilience in the first half of the year, reaching $341 million, a 12.7% increase over the same period in 2024. Processed whiteleg shrimp (HS16) was a key driver, reflecting a consumer trend towards convenient products. However, Vietnam is not immune to the challenges. The country faces a 20% reciprocal tax, in addition to existing anti-dumping and countervailing duties. This combination of taxes, coupled with the potential for reduced US consumer purchasing power due to higher retail prices, poses significant risks for the second half of the year.

To navigate this uncertainty, VASEP suggests short-term and long-term strategies for Vietnamese exporters. In the short term, businesses are advised to closely monitor US policy developments and adjust their product mix, focusing on high-value processed goods while optimizing costs. For the long term, reducing dependence on the US market and expanding into other regions like the CPTPP, EU, South Korea, and China will be crucial. Diversifying products with a focus on sustainable, organic, and low-carbon offerings is also seen as an essential strategy to ensure stability and competitiveness in the face of global trade shocks.

editorial@seafood.media
www.seafood.media

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