Despite a recent decline in shrimp imports, China is expected to continue driving global seafood consumption growth over the next decade, creating substantial opportunities for international exporters.

China's shrimp imports fell for the fourth consecutive quarter in the three-month period ending June 30, 2024, signaling a shift towards more cautious buying behavior in this vast market, as discussed by experts at the Global Shrimp Council earlier this week in Utrecht, the Netherlands. In 2023, China imported a record 1 million tons of shrimp, according to Willem van der Pijl, CEO of the Global Shrimp Forum Foundation.

However, a new report from Rabobank projects that China will account for 40% of the global increase in seafood consumption by 2030, equivalent to an additional 5.5 million tons. With a population of 1.4 billion and a rapidly expanding middle class, China's seafood market is set for significant growth. By 2030, China is expected to become a $29 billion seafood import market, surpassing the current $25 billion market in the United States. This growth reflects a dual trend in both volume and value, fueled by rising incomes, urbanization, and an increasing preference for higher-value seafood.

Per capita seafood consumption in China is projected to rise from 41 kg in 2023 to 46 kg by 2030, according to Rabobank. However, domestic production challenges—including environmental degradation, resource scarcity, and rising labor costs—are likely to compel China to rely more heavily on seafood imports to meet the growing supply gap.

Photo: courtesy Tripadvisor

Rabobank's report highlights that China's shift from being a leading producer to a major global buyer and price setter will have profound implications for international seafood markets. Decisions made by China regarding its seafood supply will influence global trade dynamics, affecting the availability and prices of key seafood species such as salmon, lobster, and shrimp.

China's seafood imports are projected to grow to $29 billion by 2030, reflecting a strategic shift in its trade balance. The country is moving from a seafood trade surplus towards becoming a net importer, driven by the need to balance domestic consumption with international supply.

Photo: courtesy Tripadvisor

This expansion offers significant opportunities for seafood exporters, particularly in Southeast Asia, India, and Latin America, which are well-positioned to provide high-value seafood products. Major salmon producers like Chile and Norway are already ramping up their exports to China, though they face challenges in diverting volumes from their traditional markets.

The rise of e-commerce and evolving retail dynamics also play a crucial role in this growth. With e-commerce sales of seafood surging, Chinese consumers are increasingly seeking higher-quality imported options—a trend that is expected to further boost demand for international seafood suppliers.