Photo: VASEP/FIS

Pangasius Market in the Second Half of 2025: Tight Supply, Export Prices Tend to Recover

VIET NAM
Friday, September 12, 2025, 00:10 (GMT + 9)

Prices rise in the second half of 2025 driven by supply shortages and recovering demand in key markets.

The total export value of Vietnamese pangasius in the first 7 months of the year reached more than $1.2 billion, an increase of 11% over the same period in 2024. In July alone, the export volume reached 88,726 tons, a slight increase of 0.2% over the previous month and an 8% increase over the same period, marking the highest level since the beginning of the year.

In July 2025, in terms of pangasius export value, most major import markets saw slight decreases. China and Hong Kong fell by 3%, the US by 0.3%, Brazil by 5%, and Mexico by 33%. The UK and EU markets increased slightly, while Thailand rose by 65%.

Regarding prices, the average reference price for pangasius exports in July decreased slightly by 1% to $2.14/kg. The price of raw fish at the farm decreased by 9-10% compared to the previous month, while fingerling prices dropped by 5%. However, in late July and early August, fingerling prices rebounded due to tight supply.

Pangasius Prices Tend to Recover

Looking ahead to the final months of the year, the upward price trend is forecast to be quite clear. Export prices are expected to increase from September when raw fish supplies are limited and the survival rate of fingerlings is low, while many farmers are actively holding fish to await better prices. Unfavorable weather conditions with heavy rains and temperature fluctuations have increased farming costs, further reinforcing the upward price momentum.

The limited supply of fingerlings also puts pressure on the market. Farmers are reluctant to sell small fish, choosing instead to keep them until they reach a larger size, which led to a shortage until the end of August. With prices now higher than in the past three years, it is expected that once processing plants use up their reserves, the purchase price from farmers will continue to be pushed up.

Challenges and Opportunities for Export in the Final Months of the Year

In the import market, the US is the most notable factor. Since August, the corresponding tax rate on pangasius imported directly from Vietnam has decreased from 46% to 20%. Although this is not a very pessimistic signal, US buyers remain cautious, focusing on clearing inventory, which means demand has not truly rebounded strongly. The new tax policy therefore still holds many unknowns for the outlook of the final months of the year.

In China, purchasing power is showing signs of slowing down, especially for whole pangasius and frozen fillets. Average prices have improved slightly, but inventory fluctuations mean this market still needs to be monitored closely.

In contrast, the EU and CPTPP countries are forecast to maintain their pivotal role thanks to preferential tariffs and stable demand. Export prices to the EU could bottom out in late August before recovering from September due to tight raw material supplies. ASEAN is also considered a potential market with steady consumption, while South America and the Middle East could become open avenues to reduce dependence on the US and China.

Brazil is still at risk of being indirectly affected by the 50% import tax that the US plans to apply to goods from this country, in case pangasius is included on the list.

Vietnam's pangasius industry is entering a decisive phase in 2025. Rising raw material prices due to limited supply, coupled with fluctuations in US trade policies and unstable demand in China, are creating both pressure and opportunities.

In this context, making the most of free trade agreements in the EU and the CPTPP, while promoting diversification to ASEAN, South America, and the Middle East, will be key to helping Vietnamese businesses maintain growth momentum. If the recovering price trend is leveraged, the pangasius industry has every basis to achieve higher profits and complete the export target for 2025.

Fuente: VASEP

editorial@seafood.media
www.seafood.media

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