'Ecuadorian producers see the collapse in prices and understand that they cannot supply the market with more than it is ready to consume'
Rabobank predicts a collapse in world prices for shrimp
(WORLDWIDE, 8/10/2023)
Shrimp consumption worldwide dropped sharply in the first half of 2023, due to inflation and the general economic downturn. Experts' forecasts about the growth in demand for this product in China after the removal of coronavirus restrictions in this country also did not materialize. As a result, suppliers have accumulated significant stocks, which is likely to lead to an even greater drop in prices in the future, according to a Rabobank report, cited by the All-Russian Association of Fisheries Enterprises, Entrepreneurs and Exporters (VARPE).
“Prices for shrimp are likely to fall even lower due to a further decline in demand from China, coupled with continued growth in production in Ecuador,” the review said.
Already today, according to the report, in Asia, almost the entire industry is operating at a loss. Producers are reducing investment in broodstock and juveniles. Thus, in Indonesia, the main supplies of shrimp from which go to the United States, production decreased by 20% in the first 6 months of this year. Shrimp production in Vietnam decreased by 20-30% in the first half of the year.
“India has not cut production, but broodstock imports have fallen by 40%, which could mean a collapse in Indian shrimp production in the second half of the year,” said Goryan Nikolik, senior industry analyst at Rabobank.
According to the results of the first half of the year, shrimp production in Ecuador increased by 19%. The country has created a large amount of excess supply in the market. Now the country is slowing down, but production is still growing.
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Rabobank experts believe that the situation with the supply of shrimp is likely to stabilize only next year.
“Ecuadorian producers see the collapse in prices and understand that they cannot supply the market with more than it is ready to consume. If retailers cut prices and Ecuador and India produce less, this could improve the situation. However, it will be difficult. Most of the sector will lose money,” the review notes.
Author: Yulia Likarchuk/vetandlife.ru (translated from original in russian)
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