Improved demand and lower feed costs will drive aquaculture production growth for key species in 2025, but tariffs and trade restrictions are a concern for the industry.

After a difficult 2024 with demand weakness in key markets, 2025 is expected to bring an improvement in the production growth of key aquaculture species. Still, much remains uncertain for 2025. Lower feed prices and better demand should benefit producers. However, increasing tariffs and trade restrictions may impede the industry, which is highly dependent on exports.

The freshwater species pangasius and tilapia are expected to have the highest growth, up 7% and 5% YOY, respectively. The species with the largest European presence – Atlantic salmon, sea bass, and sea bream – should achieve supply growth of 3% to 4% in 2025. Shrimp, which continues to face relatively low prices, is expected to grow by only 2%. This is an improvement on the 1% growth in 2024 but low relative to historical levels.

According to RaboResearch’s annual aquaculture survey on finfish and shrimp production, performed in cooperation with the Global Seafood Alliance (GSA), the industry has a more optimistic outlook for production in 2025. However, survey respondents remain concerned about the market and economic conditions in 2025, with specific concerns about market prices, aquafeed costs, and market access.

As of November 2024, South Korea's import volume of fresh salmon experienced a notable decline compared to the same period in 2023.

In November alone, the country imported 1,227 tons of fresh salmon, marking a 25% decrease from the 1,639 tons imported in November 2023. The cumulative import volume for the year reached 14,715 tons, down 14% from 17,134 tons during the same period last year.

Norway dominated South Korea's fresh salmon imports, supplying 14,471 tons, or 98% of the total. Other contributing countries included:

The import price per kilogram was highest for Norwegian salmon at USD 12.87/kg, followed by Canada (USD 12.29/kg) and Australia (USD 10.99/kg).

In terms of value, November 2024 imports of chilled salmon totaled USD 14.55 million, reflecting an 11% decline from USD 16.34 million in November 2023. Cumulatively, the import value stood at USD 189.19 million, a significant 20% decrease from USD 236.57 million during the same period in 2023.

The average import price per kilogram for the year was USD 12.86, down 7% from USD 13.81 in 2023, signaling a downward trend in salmon prices.

The decrease in fresh salmon imports is attributed to several factors, including shifts in domestic market demand and volatility in international salmon prices. These dynamics have influenced both the volume and value of imports, reflecting a complex interplay of market conditions.

Source: Union Forsea corp.

The State Council Commission on Agriculture has approved amendments to the Strategy for the Development of the Agro-Industrial and Fishing Complex, extending its objectives through 2030. Notably, these updates include a dedicated focus on advancing export growth.

The strategy projects agricultural exports to reach $55.2 billion, reflecting an ambitious expansion of Russia’s international trade footprint. The updated strategy also provides a comprehensive overview of the current state of the agricultural and fishing industries, emphasizing the critical role of fish and seafood in Russia’s export portfolio.

Fish and seafood account for a significant share of Russia's agricultural exports, comprising 12.5% of the total external supply volume in 2023. Presently, 15 product categories and five key markets account for 97% of all Russian fish exports.

To maintain momentum and achieve the 2030 targets, the strategy underscores the need for Russian fishing companies to open new markets and expand export destinations, particularly in the Global South. If internal restrictions are minimized, the external supply potential of Russian fish and seafood could reach $8.85 billion by 2030, according to a forecast by VARPE (the All-Russian Association of Fishery Enterprises, Entrepreneurs, and Exporters).

Hla Htay, Deputy Regional Head of Myanmar's Fisheries Department, has called for coordinated efforts among various departments to prevent fish and prawns treated with formalin from entering Yangon via the Thai-Myawady border. His remarks came during a meeting of the Myanmar Fisheries Federation on September 10.

Hla Htay emphasized the critical role of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in testing for formaldehyde in imported fish and prawns, which are often cheaper than Myanmar's domestic seafood products.

“Yangon is the final destination. These fish and prawns pass through Kayin State, Mon State, and Bago Region before reaching Yangon. With numerous entry points into the city, it’s impossible for our department to act alone. We require the cooperation of other entities, including the Myanmar Police Force and the FDA,” Hla Htay explained.

He also recounted previous enforcement efforts, noting that trucks carrying fish and prawns illegally brought into Yangon via Myawady were seized in 2016 and 2017. The confiscated goods were sold at auction. However, such operations were halted due to death threats targeting enforcement teams.

“Our teams had to fund these operations out of our own pockets. Then the threats started. To be frank, even at Sanpya Market in Yangon, we know who the importers are. However, we are planning for arrests, and the FDA will take the lead in conducting inspections,” he added.

The situation underscores the need for strengthened regulatory measures and interdepartmental collaboration to protect Myanmar’s fisheries industry and ensure public health.

The Salmonika Group of Companies, owned by the family of Oleg Nikolaevich Kozhemyako, has announced its acquisition of Gorod 415, a prominent fishing company previously held by the family of Senator Boris Aleksandrovich Nevzorov from the Kamchatka Krai Legislative Assembly.

This strategic acquisition aligns with ongoing efforts to secure fishing areas and follows transactions related to the purchase of Vityaz Avto. In November 2024, Tymlatsky Rybokombinat, a subsidiary of the Salmonika Group, acquired a 70% stake in Gorod 415. The acquired company specializes in fish extraction and processing and boasts a modern processing complex along with its own fleet.

The Nevzorov family retains ownership of several other fishing enterprises along Kamchatka’s eastern coast, underscoring their continued presence in the industry. This move marks a significant step in the ongoing consolidation of the fishing sector, highlighting the evolving dynamics and strategic realignments within this vital industry.

The 2025 grant program supports investments, promotional campaigns, and initiatives to enhance the added value of fishing and aquaculture products.

The Governing Council of Andalusia has approved a €5.2 million grant from the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries, Water, and Rural Development to improve the marketing and processing of fishing and aquaculture products in the region.

Co-financed by the European Maritime, Fisheries, and Aquaculture Fund (EMFAF), the 2025 program dedicates €5 million to supporting investments by businesses engaged in processing and marketing these products. Additionally, €130,000 will be allocated to promotional campaigns, while €75,000 will fund initiatives that enhance the quality and added value of fishing and aquaculture products.

Eligible recipients of this funding include small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), non-profit organizations within the sector, and Andalusian fishermen's associations, along with the federations representing them.

This financial support reflects Andalusia’s commitment to strengthening the aquaculture sector, promoting sustainable practices, and increasing the competitiveness of local producers on national and international markets.

The legislation marks a step forward for sustainable aquaculture practices in the country.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has officially enacted Law 15.070/2024, which establishes a comprehensive framework for the use of bioinputs in agriculture and aquaculture, according to Toda Palavra, a partner of TV BRICS.

Under the new law, bioinputs are defined as materials or processes of biological origin used in the production, transformation, or storage of agricultural, aquatic, or forestry products.

These inputs play a critical role in promoting healthier growth, pest control, and disease management while providing an eco-friendly alternative to traditional chemical inputs.

The law regulates the entire lifecycle of bioinputs, including their production, import, export, registration, commercialization, use, inspection, and regulation.

It also addresses related areas such as research, packaging, advertising, transportation, storage, waste disposal, and incentives for the development of bioinputs.

With this initiative, Brazil aims to set a global benchmark for sustainable agricultural innovation.

The Norwegian government is establishing a new subsidy scheme for bait for fishing vessels that fish with longlines. The subsidy does not apply to the deep-sea fishing fleet.

"In the last five years, the cost of bait has almost doubled. To remedy the situation, a scheme with line subsidies will be established for 2025", says Minister of Fisheries and the Oceans Marianne Sivertsen Næss in a press release from the ministry.

The purpose of the scheme is to help alleviate the demanding liquidity situation for fishing vessels that fish with longlines and autolines, by reducing the cost burden resulting from extraordinary expenses for bait and line rental in 2025. Vessels that fish with longlines and autolines can apply for subsidies. There are no geographical restrictions on who can apply for subsidies. The subsidy scheme does not apply to conventional deep-sea fishing vessels. A ceiling of NOK 200,000 per vessel is set for subsidies.

Russian fishermen have broken the world and their own record for catch by one vessel in a calendar year for the third time. The freezer fishing cannery trawler Petr I (owned by Tralflot) caught 93.5 thousand tons of fish in 2024.

The vessel was on the fishery for 307 days: the first voyage lasted from January 8 to June 1, and the second from July 2 to December 20. The total number of the two crews was 130 people. In winter and spring, the trawler caught pollock, herring, ivasi and mackerel in the Sea of ??Okhotsk and the Pacific Ocean, in summer and autumn - ivasi and mackerel in the Pacific Ocean.

By the end of 2023, the fishing trawler Peter I had caught and processed more than 90 thousand tons of aquatic bioresources. Its previous record was set in 2019 – 87.2 thousand tons of fish products.

Fiskebåt Nord is very concerned about reports that Russian vessels may have fished more than the cod quotas indicate. “We now have to find out what is right and what is wrong,” says Ivar Andreassen, chairman of Fiskebåt Nord.

The information that overfishing is taking place appears, among other things, in an article in The Barents Observer on November 28 this year. In the early 1990s, when the cod stock was much larger, there was a Russian overfishing.

Photo: courtesy Odd Kristian Dahle/Fiskebåt/FIS

"If the same thing happens now, the situation is very serious. Therefore, it is important to find out about this, and whether there is any truth to this information or not," says Andreassen.

Fiskebåt Nord has written a letter to the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Fisheries requesting that the matter be followed up and investigated further. Among other things, there is information that Russian fish is being delivered from freezer boats to Dutch ports.